000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 1011 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 02N94W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 140 NM N OF AXIS FROM 130W 
TO 134W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 04N85W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO BEYOND 22N140W. A 
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED NW OF AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION BY SUN 
MORNING. SW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL AFFECT THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA TONIGHT AND SUN. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...THERE IS A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION N OF 
7N AND W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE W PORTIONS OF 
THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
MAINLY W OF 130W. A WEST TO EAST TROUGH LIES N OF THE EQUATOR 
AND STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 4N139W TO NEAR 
7N115W. STRONG SW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FIRST UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE 
CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO THE NE 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N126 WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N110W. 
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING E OF 140W CONTINUES TO BLOCK 
FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE W-NW. THE HIGH 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEALY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES E OF THE U.S. 
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS IS RESULTING IN 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN AROUND 180 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 7N TO 15N 
AND W OF 125W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN PLACE. 

W OF 110W...REGIONAL WATERS ARE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL 
SHOULD REACH THE NW CORNER BY EARLY MON RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 
16 FT MON NIGHT. E OF 110W...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL 
MERGE WITH THE NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE GAP WIND EVENTS 
TONIGHT AND SUN.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE AND S ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 12-24 
HOURS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC MEXICO SHOWED DECREASING 
WINDS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE REGION AND 
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 92W.  

GULF OF PANAMA...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 20 
KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
REMAINS TIGHT OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

$$
GR