000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W 
TO 03N90W TO 05N110W TO 05N120W TO 03N130W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE WITHIN60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 95W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 85W AND 
140W WITH AXIS ALONG 110W S OF NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS W OF THE AXIS N OF 15N W OF 115W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 
115W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
5N105W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOWEVER 
NOTED W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA E OF 90W.   

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR 
THIS FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD INTO THE U.S. W COAST TODAY WHILE 
THE PORTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENS AS IT IS FORCED 
AGAINST THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NW MEXICO. AN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND LOWER PRES E OF THE 
ROCKIES AND SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
WILL BRING NW WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
SUR OVERNIGHT FRI MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA NEAR THE FRONT...BUT NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS 
BROUGHT SEAS TO 11 FT THIS MORNING AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO 
REACH AS HIGH AS 13 FT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SWELL TRAIN 
PROCEEDS SOUTHEASTWARD.

FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE FROM 07N TO 12N W OF 130W. TRADE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRESH AS THEY SHRINK SOUTHWARD FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BE REPLACED WITH NW SWELL FROM THE COLD 
FRONT IN 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELAS 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE THIS MORNING AND REACH 45 KT BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS AS 
HIGH AS 18 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY FRI EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT BECOMES DISPLACED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND  
PRODUCE FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND 
TO 88W ON FRI MORNING AND LAST AT LEAST 24 MORE HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA