000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N78W 
TO 05N100W TO 03N110W TO 04N128W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST 
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
TO THE N BEYOND BAJA CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW 
CORNER AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY REACHING THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. MULTI-LAYERED 
CLOUDINESS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND 
W OF 130W WHERE THE SW-W FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM S OF HAWAII INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING MAINLY THE AREA N OF 15N AND 
W OF 110W. TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRES OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN IS RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. SURFACE DATA FROM SAN FELIPE IN 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. 
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT IN THIS AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT IS NEAR 30N140W. THE 
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W THU MORNING THEN STALL 
FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W THU AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE 
OVER FORECAST WATERS THU EVENING. NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT 
AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 14 FT LATE THU...THEN SPREAD SE ACROSS 
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N129W TO 
13N140W WHILE SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE FRI.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THU MORNING. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CHIVELAS PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL QUICKLY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THU MORNING...AND REACH 45 KT BY THU 
EVENING WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 19 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN 
POSTED FOR THIS AREA BEGINNING THU MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED WIND 
SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES 
WILL PRODUCE FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
DOWNWIND TO 88W. 

$$
GR