000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091602 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAR 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N77W TO 03N100W TO 05N110W TO 03N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA E OF 80W S OF 5N. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM S OF 3N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 05N105W HAS IMPOSED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N E OF 115W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A VAST UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. AN UPPER JET WITH CORE WINDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE LIES W AND N OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ITCZ. THIS MOISTURE HAS MANIFEST ITSELF AS CIRRUS WITHIN 240 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N102W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 04N115W. FARTHER W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ W OF 130W LIES BETWEEN WESTERLY FLOW JUST N OF 10N AND SW FLOW S OF 10N. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE ITCZ DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W WHERE THE SW-W FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM S OF HAWAII INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO 19N110W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IS GENERATING NW-N 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. THE 0530Z ASCAT AND 0224Z WINDSAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TRADES OVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES CENTER MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN NW SWELL TO ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU MORNING AND STEADILY INCREASING TO 14 FT OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE FOUND N OF 26N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY BUT WEAKENS BY THU MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THU MORNING AND REACH 40 KT BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 18 FT. $$ SCHAUER/FORMOSA