000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE MAR 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N95W TO 03N104W TO 05N113W TO 03N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. W FLOW ALOFT AT 40-60 KT IS IN PLACE N OF 10N E OF 120W UNDER THE RIDGE. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 17N W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE... CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 115W AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 12N E OF 120W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. IN THE TROPICS ... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 2N103W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10S TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. AT THE SURFACE...1027 MB HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA TO 15N108W. AN 1004 MB ISOBAR LIES OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS GENERATING NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT AND 8 FT IN 24 HOURS...AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS. FRESH NE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER W WATERS FROM 17N TO 22N W OF 120W WITH 9 FT SEAS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES CENTER MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NW WATERS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. NW SWELL WILL DAMPEN OUT IN THE AREA OF TRADEWINDS TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED WHILE THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN NW SWELL TO 11 FT BY THU MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 20 KT THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT UNTIL THUR MORNING WHEN 20-25 KT WINDS START IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA