000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 01N79W 
TO 04N90W TO 01N101W THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N125W TO 05N133W THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 04N137W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N E OF 120W WITH W-SW FLOW ALOFT AT 
30-60 KT. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE N OF 10N E OF 
120W UNDER THE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED 
ALONG THE ITCZ UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 
90W AND 120W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

A SHARP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW 
CORNER OF MEXICO NEAR 32N113W SW TO 28N125W THEN CONTINUES TO 
26N140W. A 50-90 KT JET AXIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING 
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM NEAR THE BIG 
ISLAND OF HAWAII NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND A 
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH REACHES FROM NEAR 26N133W TO 
10N140W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THIS RIDGE FROM NEAR 
24N125W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 127W.

AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH A REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDING 
FROM THERE SW-W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 1030 MB HIGH 
PRES JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W RIDGES INTO THE AREA TO 
14N108W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE IS GENERATING NW-N 20-25
KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
20 KT BY 24 HOURS THEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE 
PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY THEN.

1010 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 05N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W 
SEMICIRCLE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS 
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING TUE MORNING AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ALTHOUGH 
ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 
20 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY