000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 01N95W TO 05N115W TO 05N130W THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N132W TO 
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 99W AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 102W AND 109W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N E OF 120W WITH W-SW FLOW ALOFT AT 
30-60 KT. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS IN PACE N OF 10N E OF 
120W UNDER THE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 120W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER A 
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A SHARP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW 
CORNER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W SW TO 28N130W THEN 
CONTINUES TO 27N140W. A 90-130 KT JET AXIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
IS ADVECTING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM NEAR 
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND A 
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH REACHES FROM NEAR 17N140W TO 
26N130W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THIS RIDGE FROM NEAR 
23N124W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH A REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDING 
FROM THERE SW-W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 1030 MB HIGH 
PRES JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N136W RIDGES INTO THE AREA TO 
16N112W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE IS GENERATING NW-N 20 KT 
WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL W OF THE PENINSULA TO 124W. 
THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY 24 HOURS AS THE 
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE. 
THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX BY 48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH REMNANT NW SWELL TO 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ALTHOUGH 
ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ON THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 
20 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...A RECENT 1522Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED ONLY 10-15 
KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF AND EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY