000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 03N78W TO 03N89W TO 01N84W TO 04N90W TO 04N121W TO 
03N132W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO ILL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 16N133W.  BROAD AND FLAT DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE COVERS AREA E OF 105W AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 03N TO 
18N.  MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ON W PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ENHANCES 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ...BUT MAINTAINS FAIRLY 
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS E OF 120W N OF 06N.

ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES BASIN BRINGING 125 KT SW 
JET CORE AND ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO REGION N OF 24N HEADING TO CALIFORNIA W COAST.  

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 30N133W TO 28N140W RUN ALONG NORTHERN 
FRINGES OF BASIN WITH FRESH WINDS FORCED AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST.  WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB CURRENTLY AT 32N148W 
FORCED NE...REDUCING PRES GRADIENT ALONG W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND ALSO EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING FRESH NE TRADES W OF 
130W FROM 06N TO 17N.  RIDGE BLOCKS ANY FURTHER INTRUSION OF 
COLD FRONT S OF 27N.    

HIGH PRES REBUILD BEHIND COLD FRONT MON AND TUE PRODUCING FRESH 
NWLY FLOW OFF UPPER PORTIONS OF BAJA PENINSULA WATERS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PREVIOUS FRESH NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
AND SHOULD BECOME A LIGHT BREEZE WITHIN NEXT 12 HR.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD FRONT OVER GULF OF MEXICO INCREASE N 
WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND REACH GALE FORCE LATER 
TONIGHT BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS COLD FRONT OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES SE INTO NW CARIBBEAN.  FRESH E WINDS 
INCREASE MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND 
FRONT.

.GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS N OF 07N FROM 78W TO 81W 
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MODERATE BREEZE MON.

$$
WALLY BARNES