000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ILL DEFINED E OF 95W...AND ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 
02N103W TO 04N130W TO 06N134W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL N AMERICA 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EQUATORWARD PORTION EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TO 
UPPER CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO 
21N110W THEN TRANSITIONING TO A TUTT LIKE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO 
ILL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 15N136W.  BROAD FLAT DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE TO THE SE SPANS FROM 105W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. NW OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH A BROAD AND LARGE UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED 
ALONG 130W AND EXTENDED BEYOND 40W...AND WAS TRANSPORTING 
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE 
WRN U.S. S OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY 
PREVAILS...EXCEPT WHERE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 140W WAS INDUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 

SHARP LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WELL W OF THE AREA IS HELPING TO 
PULL UPPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE TROPICS AND OVER THE RIDGE. THIS 
TROUGH IS FORECAST SHIFT E AND AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH SUN AND 
TRANSPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S TO SWLY 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY 
INTO THE NW CORNER BY 1200 UTC SUN. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 32N127W PRESENTLY CAUSING FRESH NW 
BREEZE ALONG THE UPPER BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES S OF 20N W OF 120W. RIDGE WILL DROP SW AND 
WEAKEN...EASING THE PRES GRADIENT AND RELAXING NE TRADES SUN AND 
MON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND TO A LIGHT BREEZE SUN NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY SAT IN 
RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND REACH GALE FORCE LATE 
SUN THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE 
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SUN.

.GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE BREEZE N OF 07N FROM 78W TO 81W WILL 
DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE SUN.

$$
STRIPLING