000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 02N103W TO 05N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH NW MEXICO TO 
20N120W TO ILL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 15N135W.  BROAD 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE KEEPS AIR MASS DRY AND STABLE UNDER MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 127W.  ONLY NOTICEABLE CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ REMAINS W OF 127W.   

SHARP LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WELL W OF BASIN ADVECT ABUNDANT 
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF IT N OF 23N W OF 120W.  SHARP 
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W WITHIN 
NEXT 24 HRS WITH INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS REMAINING N OF 27N 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 33N124W PRESENTLY CAUSING FRESH NW 
BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
W OF 125W.  RIDGE DROPS SW EASING GRADIENT AND RELAXING NE 
TRADES SUN AND MON.  AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING 
FRESH NE BREEZE ALONG ITS PATH N OF 27N AS HIGH PRES BLOCKS ANY 
FURTHER SOUTHERN INTRUSION.  MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKEN FRONT 
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT S OF 30N BY MON.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN TO FRESH BREEZE SUN AND TO A LIGHT BREEZE SUN NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS INCREASE EARLY SAT AND REACH GALE 
FORCE LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE 
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SUN.

.GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N BREEZE N OF 06N FROM 79W TO 81W 
DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZE LATE SUN.

$$
WALLY BARNES