000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 
ACROSS THE E PACIFIC...ANALYZED FROM 01N80W TO 01N82W TO 06N93W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N96W 1007 MB THEN CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 00N102W INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TO 04S108W THEN TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 00N119W TO 06N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DESERT SW OF THE 
U.S. AND ENTERING FAR W TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND EXTENDED SW  
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N106W TO 21N117W TO A BROAD 
MID TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 14N134W WITH TROUGHING CONTINUING W TO 
13N140W. A COLLAPSING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINED 
NEAR 13N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO 22N100W. THE RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE 
MOVING E. NW OF THE TROUGH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WAS N OF 20N 
ALONG 135W AND EXTENDED TO 40N. S OF THESE FEATURES...AND 
GENERALLY S OF 10N...MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 10N. A 
WELL DEFINED PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE... ORIGINATING IN THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...OVER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 135W. 
  
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS AND 
TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ...CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N126W. 
A STRONG PRES GRADIENT EXISTS S THROUGH SW OF THE RIDGE AND TO 
THE N OF THE ITCZ THAT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS 15 
TO 25 KT ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 120W. THESE ENHANCED 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND COVER THE AREA FROM 
05N TO 15N W OF 130W BY EARLY SUNDAY. NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE 
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW TO COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 
115W AND 123W BY SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
SAT NIGHT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT. 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT SUN MORNING AND THEN 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SUN EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

GULF OF PANAMA...MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED N TO NE 
20 KT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 09N79W TO 04N82W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO PERSIST 
NEAR 20 KT OVER GENERALLY THE SAME AREA THROUGH EARLY 
SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$
STRIPLING