000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE .AXIS WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 
ACROSS THE E PACIFIC...ANALYZED FROM 01N80W TO 02N86W TO 07N90W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N95W 1010 MB AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 00N102W INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TO 04S109W THEN TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 00N119W TO 06N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DESERT SW OF THE 
U.S. AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N103W SW TO 
22N119W TO A BROAD MID TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 14N134W WITH 
TROUGHING CONTINUING W TO 13N140W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N97W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
NW TO 22N100W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS ALLOWING THE 
UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E. S OF THESE FEATURES...AND 
GENERALLY S OF 10N...MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 11N E 
OF 120W AND S OF 09N W OF 120W. A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE... ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ROUGHLY N OF A 
23N140W TO 30N124W LINE. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE 
RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE ITCZ W OF 110W. 
  
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N OF 
13N...CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N126W. A STRONG PRES 
GRADIENT EXISTS S THROUGH SW OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE N OF THE 
ITCZ THAT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 25 KT 
ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 17N W OF 122W. THESE ENHANCED TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 20N W 
OF 124W BY EARLY SUNDAY. NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE ALONG THE W COAST 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW 
TO COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W BY 
SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT. 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED N TO NE 
20 KT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 09N79W TO 04N82W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO PERSIST 
NEAR 20 KT OVER GENERALLY THE SAME AREA THROUGH EARLY 
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY 
SUNDAY.

$$
STRIPLING