000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO A 
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 06N94W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 
00N119W TO 07N126W TO 04N135W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS...HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 05N127W TO 09N124W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 
126W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N116W SW TO 15N140W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N95W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING NW TO 22N105W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE E WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE CUTTING OFF AT 17N133W LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS NOTED GENERALLY S 
OF 10N W OF 108W...FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF TWO SURFACE 
TROUGHS. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N113W TO 10N114W AND THE OTHER 
IS FROM 05N127W TO 09N124W. BOTH EXHIBIT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE WESTERN MOST TROUGH 
HAS ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED W OF THE AXIS 
DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE 
IMMEDIATE WEST. A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE... 
ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ROUGHLY N OF A 23N140W TO 30N124W 
LINE. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ITCZ.
  
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N OF 13N 
WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED SW OF THE RIDGE AND 
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ THAT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF NE TO E 15 TO 
20 KT NE WINDS...ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 122W. THESE 
ENHANCED TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND COVER THE 
AREA FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 124W BY EARLY SUNDAY. NW WINDS AT 15 
TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW TO COVER THE AREA FROM 
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W BY SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL A 
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT. NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...A WINDSAT PASS AROUND 04/1124 UTC CAPTURED N TO 
NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 09N79W TO 04N81W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 
25 KT OVER GENERALLY THE SAME AREA EARLY SATURDAY...THEN 
DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN