000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N80W TO 
WEAK LOW PRES 1007 MB CENTERED NEAR 07N90W...THEN EXTENDS SW TO 
03N97W...THEN W THROUGH 06N121W AND 04N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
LOCALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH 
OCCASIONAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING...ARE 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 07N78W TO 07N87W TO 03N93W TO 
09N110W TO 09N121W TO 04N130W TO 05N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO 17N132W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N99W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
W TO 16N130W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE UPPER 
TROUGH TO CONTINUE E WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF AT 
15N135W ON SAT. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 122W. THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE MERGING WITH 
A NARROW PLUME NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
17N123W TO 23N110W TURNING E AND EVAPORATING OVER OLD MEXICO 
ALONG 24N. A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING 
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...ROUGHLY N OF 27N. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS 
ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG 
THE ITCZ.
  
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS E OF THE 
FRONT WITH THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS... 
ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W. THESE ENHANCED TRADES WILL 
EXPAND AND COVER THE AREA FROM 05N TO 24N W OF 115W BY THE 
WEEKEND. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND EXPECTED TO EXPAND W TO COVER 
THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W SAT...THEN DIMINISH.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF AND STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TILL A COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA N 
OF 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE 
AREA N OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W FRI NIGHT AND SAT... 
DIMINISHING SOME SAT NIGHT.

$$
NELSON