000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS 02N79W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 07N90W TO 02N115W TO 06N117W TO 03N130W TO 05N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. 
WEAKENING AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS W OF 110W TO THE NORTH OF A CUTOFF 
LOW TO FORM A REX BLOCK THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF ALL 
THIS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH NEAR 
30N125W...THAT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA 
S OF 20N THROUGH SAT...AND FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N108W TO 10N108W. A WINDSAT PASS 
FROM 13Z SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE NORTH END OF THE TROUGH 
AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL MAY 
STILL BE ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY...LEFTOVER FROM AN EARLIER 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN OUT THROUGH 
24 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF S OF 28N AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPAND 
TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN QUICKLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNSET.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 
25 KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

.GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA N 
OF 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W WILL SHIFT W TO THE AREA N OF 06N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W ON FRI AND SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN