000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ILL DEFINED FROM 
04N77W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N89W....WITH THE 
AXIS THEN EXTENDING W TO 02N100W TO 06N117W TO 03N130W TO 
06N140W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 10N ALONG 107W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 
ELSEWHERE...THE ITCZ LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AS 
WELL THIS MORNING.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 14N140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N95W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 23N112W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING 
EASTWARD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CUTTING OFF AT 14N134W BY 
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL AREAS OF ITCZ DEBRIS 
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 210 NM 
OF THE CENTER OF A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 07N89W. ANOTHER AREA OF 
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS 
ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG 
THE ITCZ.
  
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 
24N134W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE 
DAYTIME THURSDAY. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERS...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N134W AND A 1022 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N126W...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS 
SURROUNDING THE BOUNDARY ARE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT SEAS OVER THE 
NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS CONTINUE AT 8 TO 11 FT 
IN NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF SEAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
BELOW 10 FT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WHILE 
COMMINGLING WITH TRADEWIND GENERATED WIND WAVES TO THE SOUTH OF 
20N. 

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N OF 
20N WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT LOCATED SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF 
THE ITCZ REGION. THIS IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE TO E 15 TO 20 
KT NE WINDS...ROUGHLY FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 119W. THESE ENHANCED 
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN STATIC IN AREAL COVERAGE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE 
W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
EXPAND W TO COVER THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 122W BY 
EARLY SATURDAY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF S OF 28N AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPAND 
TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN QUICKLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNSET.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 
25 KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

.GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA N 
OF 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W WILL SHIFT W TO THE AREA N OF 06N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W ON FRI AND SAT.

$$
HUFFMAN