000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ILL DEFINED FROM 
07N77W TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N89W....WITH THE AXIS THEN 
EXTENDING W MEANDERING BETWEEN 03N AND 06W TO BEYOND 140W. 
LOCALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH 
OCCASIONAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING...ARE 
OBSERVED N OF 03N E OF 90W...S OF 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...
S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...AND S OF 07N BETWEEN 120W AND 
140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 20N138W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 10N122W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE E WITH AN UPPER 
CYCLONE CUTTING OFF AT 15N135W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SMALL AREAS OF ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED NEAR 09N114W AND 
08N126W AND NEAR 07N140W. THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE ADVECTED 
NE BUT SEEM TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING ALONG 15N. A NARROW 
MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
16N122W TO 22N118W THEN TURNING E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EVAPORATING OVER OLD MEXICO ALONG 25N. 
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING IN THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N W 
OF 130W CONVERGING INTO A 480 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 26N126W TO WELL 
BEYOND 32N114W WHERE THE MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER MOST OF THE SW 
CONUS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ITCZ.
  
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 
21N140W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT...BUT SEAS CONTINUE AT 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL TO THE 
OF THE DECAYING FRONT AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 9 FT 
TONIGHT...THEN CLOCK TO THE S AND INCREASE ON FRI. 

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS E OF THE FRONT WITH THE 
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
A SMALL AREA OF NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS...ROUGHLY FROM 04N 
TO 18N W OF 110W. THESE ENHANCED TRADES WILL EXPAND AND COVER 
THE AREA FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 115W BY THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS AT 
15 TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...AND EXPECTED TO EXPAND W TO COVER THE AREA N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 122W BY LATE FRI. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF S OF 28N AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN QUICKLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNSET.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 
25 KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

.GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA N 
OF 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W WILL SHIFT W TO THE AREA N OF 06N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W ON FRI AND SAT.

$$
NELSON