000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N88W TO 04N108W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 130W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS N OF THE AREA OVER 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ALSO EVIDENT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AS REPORTED BY A LAND BASED OBSERVATION AT MRLB AND BY 
SHIP VCDF4. FURTHER WEST...AREAS OF RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG 
FLOW RELATED TO BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE SUPPORTING 
WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. THE FLOW FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N102W TO 
10N103W. DISTINCT OUTFLOW LINES RELATED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF 
THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY N OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS AS IT MIGRATES W AND THE TEHUANTEPEC FLOW DIMINISHES. THE 
PAPAGAYO FLOW IS SUPPORTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION NEAR 06N88W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE EDGE OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS POSSIBLY ENHANCING 
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LOW PRES 
AREA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE PERIODIC PULSES OF E 
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 
FURTHER S...FRESH N FLOW OFF THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 110W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N127W TO 
14N130W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH FRESH TRADE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO 
ENHANCE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 07N130W. THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 15N. 
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD N OF 
30N...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG 30N125W TO 21N140W. 1024 MB 
HIGH PRES NEAR 26N123W WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL ENHANCE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH...AND NW FLOW TO 
20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PUSH INTO 
THE WATERS N OF 22N W OF 120W THROUGH SAT. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 
10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA OF FRESH 
TRADES THROUGH SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN