000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W 
TO LOW PRES 06N88W TO 06N115W TO 04N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 
90W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE AIRMASS N OF THE AREA 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES AND THE PRES GRADIENT 
WEAKENS. FURTHER SOUTH...CRUISE SHIP ZCDF4 IS INDICATING 35 TO 
40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ALTHOUGH IS LIKELY 
OVERDONE DUE TO AN ELEVATED ANEMOMETER. A 12Z WINDSAT PASS 
SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT THROUGH PAPAGAYO...WHICH IS MORE 
INDICATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. FURTHER WEST...AREAS OF FRESH 
TO STRONG FLOW RELATED TO BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE 
SUPPORTING WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS. THE 
FLOW FROM TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N 
TO 11N ALONG 103W. DISTINCT OUTFLOW LINES RELATED TO THE LEADING 
EDGES OF THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY N OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS AS IT MIGRATES W AND THE TEHUANTEPEC FLOW DIMINISHES. THE 
PAPAGAYO FLOW IS SUPPORTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION NEAR 07N88W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE EDGE OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS POSSIBLY ENHANCING 
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LOW PRES 
AREA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE PERIODIC PULSES OF E 
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 
FURTHER S...FRESH N FLOW OFF THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 48 HOURS.

W OF 110W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N127W TO 
14N130W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH FRESH TRADE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO 
ENHANCE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 07N130W. THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 15N. 
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD N OF 
30N...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG 30N125W TO 21N140W. 1024 MB 
HIGH PRES NEAR 26N123W WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT 
TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH...AND NW FLOW TO 
20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN