000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N78W 
TO 05N89W TO 01N110W THEN RESUMES NEAR 05N111W TO 04N125W TO 
08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 
127W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 16N103W IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10N AND 24N E OF 
115W. BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND 
ANOTHER S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 16S95W IS MARGINALLY ENHANCING 
VERTICAL MOTION IN VICINITY OF THE ITCZ E OF 93W. CONVECTION 
REMAINS ISOLATED AT BEST...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS CATEGORIZED AS 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES NEAR 
07N98W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND HELP BREAKDOWN 
THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 24N125W TO 13N131W TO 
10N140W WHILE A WEAKER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 
12N130W TO 06N114W. A NARROW AREA OF 50-70 KT SW WINDS LIES E OF 
THE MAIN TROUGH AND N OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND IS 
TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE NORTHWARD FROM THE 
TROPICS WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS NOTED PRIMARILY N OF THE ITCZ 
TO 23N BETWEEN 115W AND 127W. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING LIES OVER NW 
WATERS WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N127W TO 
26N133W TO 22N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE 
EASTWARD TODAY WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING EAST OF THE 
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO 
THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE PACIFIC FORECAST 
WATERS E OF THE FRONT TO 105W N OF 15N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY FROM 07N TO 
14N W OF 122W. THESE TRADES WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD AND EXPAND 
NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE N MERGES WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALLOWING 
A STRONGER HIGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FARTHER W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES LIES ON BOTH THE E SIDE OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE 
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL ON THE W SIDE WHERE THE 
PACIFIC HIGH LIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE 
NW WATERS. NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE PERIOD WITH ENHANCEMENT TO 25 KT EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY 
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE MEAN SURFACE RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE 
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHIFTS WEST.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SEND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS BELIEVED TO STILL BE AT GALE FORCE 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND THE FRONT 
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRES 
OVER COLOMBIA.

$$
HUFFMAN