000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W 
TO 02N100W TO 04N115W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 06N81W TO 07N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
11N95W TO 07N101W...AND ALSO FLARING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 07N111W TO 04N120W TO 09N131W...AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N140W TO A BASE AT 
10N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE W BAY 
OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A 
SHARP CREST AT 08N127W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 115W AND 135W IS ADVECTED N AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO 
A 180 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 15N125W TO BEYOND 32N106W. ADDITIONAL 
UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N MERGING WITH THE TROPICAL 
PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DENSE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ CONVECTION E 
OF 90W IS SPREADING W OVER THE AREA S OF 10N E OF 96W. OTHERWISE 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 24N E OF 120W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 22N140W 
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SLOW REACHING ALONG 32N126W TO 
21N140W ON WED...THEN WASH OUT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS AT 20 TO 25 KT SHIFTING THE W 
AT 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT WED. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS...RESULTING IN SEAS TO 12 FT...SHOULD ONLY REACH ALONG 
27N TO THE W OF 128W THU BEFORE SUBSIDING.

FURTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS WITH THE 
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
A SMALL AREA OF NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS...ROUGHLY FROM 07N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THESE TRADES WILL EXPAND AND COVER 
THE AREA FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 120W BY LATE THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER 
THE GULF S OF 28N AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT 
THROUGH THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED 
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MIDDAY 
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH WED MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE WED 
THROUGH THU.

.GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
OVER THE AREA N OF 07N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W ON WED...INCREASING 
TO 20 TO 25 KT ON THU...BUT SEAS SHOULD ONLY MAX AT ABOUT 7 FT. 

$$
NELSON