000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W 
TO THE EQUATOR AT 100W.  THE AXIS RESUMES FROM 07N110W TO 
05N117W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A  LINE 
FROM 06N77W TO 07N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N115W TO 07N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N137W TO 11N131W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AT 19N96W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 
08N128W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 115W 
AND 125W IS ADVECTED N AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO A 240 NM WIDE 
PLUME FROM 14N128W TO BEYOND 32N110W. ADDITIONAL UPPER 
MOISTURE...ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N MERGING WITH THE TROPICAL PLUME 
ALONG 120W. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 90W IS SPREADING W OVER THE AREA 
S OF 10N E OF 96W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 
24N E OF 120W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 23N140W
AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 32N128W TO 22N140W ON WED THEN 
WASH OUT WED NIGHT AND THU. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS 
AT 25 TO 25 KT SHIFTING THE W BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT 
WILL RELAX WILL WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT WED. 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...SEAS TO 11 FT...SHOULD ONLY REACH ALONG 
27N W OF 128W THU BEFORE SUBSIDING.

FURTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS WITH THE 
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
A SMALL AREA OF NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS...ROUGHLY FROM 07N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 128W. THESE TRADES WILL EXPAND AND COVER 
THE AREA FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W BY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER 
THE GULF S OF 28N AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT 
THROUGH THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED 
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MIDDAY 
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 
20 KT THROUGH WED MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE WED 
THROUGH THU.

.GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
OVER THE AREA N OF 07N BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W ON WED...INCREASING 
TO 20 TO 25 KT ON THU...BUT SEAS SHOULD ONLY MAX AT ABOUT 7 FT. 

$$
NELSON