000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N78W 
TO 07N81W TO 00N99W THEN BEGINS ANEW FROM 07N111W TO 04N116W TO 
03N132W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX WAS CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF NEW MEXICO WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH 
REACHING FROM THIS VORTEX TO 27N117W. AN UPPER JET AXIS WITH 
CORE WIND SPEEDS OF 120 TO 140 KT EXIST WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH AND HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT OVER THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET ORIGINATES OVER THE CENTRAL 
TROPICAL PACIFIC SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS NE 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE 
DEEP TROPICS NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES 
FROM 30N112W TO 25N114W TO 22N136W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
123W AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TODAY AS THIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT HAS PEAKED WITH SEAS TO 15 FT AND WILL GRADUALLY DECAY 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING CAN BE FOUND S OF THE COLD FRONT TO 10N. 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS 
FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 132W. THESE TRADES WILL MIGRATE E OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT 
IS FORCED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS NEW COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF 
THE PERIOD...AND THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES TO 
ITS E WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER NW WATERS BY 
MON MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND INCREASE TO 30 KT BY TUE 
MORNING.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA CONTINUES TO 
MAINTAIN BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING S OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A CLUSTER OF 
STRONG CONVECTION OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA HAS SHIFTED W INTO THE 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ THERE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N WATERS HAS 
PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO 
WLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT 20 TO 25 KT. SATELLITE PHOTOS CONFIRM 
THIS WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE PRESENCE OF TRANSVERSE BANDS 
ALIGNED N TO S AND SHIFTED E ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
ON MON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN MEXICO WHILE 
HIGH PRES RIDGING STRENGTHENS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AROUND 
20 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA LAND-MASS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING