000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W 
TO 05N85W TO 02N83W THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N114W TO 04N130W TO 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
ALONG THE NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA BORDER NEAR 38N118W WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM THIS VORTEX TO 26N126W. A HEALTHY JET 
AXIS WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXISTS WITHIN 600 NM 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NE TO ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES 
FROM 32N115W TO 24N128W TO 30N138W. EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT 
PASSES CAPTURED 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS THIS FRONT DISSIPATES WHILE CONTINUING SE. NW SWELL OF UP TO 
14 FT WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND THE 
FRONT GRADUALLY DECAYING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS S OF THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 19N. 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 07N 
TO 13N W OF 125W WITH SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT IN MAINLY NE SWELL AS 
RECENTLY REPORTED BY SHIP VRZN8 JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 07N141W. 
THESE TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT S DURING THE NEXT 
24 THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SWELLS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PART BY THE END OF THE 
PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF IT MON 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT SUN 
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE 
SOUTHERN GULF ON MON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN 
MEXICO WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING STRENGTHENS JUST W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT LATE 
TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
LAND-MASS...DIMINISHING BY LATE SUN MORNING. THE WINDS RETURN 
LATE SUN NIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MON.

$$
LEWITSKY