000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W 
TO 06N86W TO 02N94W THEN CONTINUES FROM 03N105W TO 04N125W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
ALONG THE NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA BORDER NEAR 37N119W WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM THIS VORTEX TO 28N130W. A HEALTHY JET 
AXIS WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXISTS WITHIN 600 TO 
750 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NE TO ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES 
FROM 32N115W TO 26N126W TO 27N140W. RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT 
PASSES CAPTURED A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE N OF 
26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS FRONT DISSIPATES WHILE 
CONTINUING SE. NW SWELL OF UP TO 13 FT WILL PROPAGATE DOWN 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DECAYING 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS S OF THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 22N. 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 07N 
TO 14N W OF 125W WITH SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT IN MAINLY NE SWELL. 
THESE TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT S DURING THE NEXT 
24 THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SWELLS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PART BY 48 HOURS WITH 
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF IT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 
29N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING 
DIMINISHING ON SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN 
THE SOUTHERN GULF ON MON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW MEXICO RIDGES S 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE 
TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
LAND-MASS DIMINISHING BY LATE SUN MORNING. THE WINDS RETURN LATE 
SUN NIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MON.

$$
LEWITSKY