000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N84W 
TO 03N95W TO 06N107W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS JUST E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 
15N94W COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 110W...INCLUDING SE MEXICO 
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THIS 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS EVIDENCED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
AS A RESULT...ONLY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG 
82W/83W JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PANAMA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 36N140W. A JET STREAM 
BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 KT IS NOTED SE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A PRETTY FAST MOVING COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A VIGOROUS LOW 
PRES SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS 
THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING 
SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 30N115W 23N125W 27N140W 
BY SAT EVENING. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 
SAT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NLY SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH LATE SUN
BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AS THE FRONT 
DISSIPATES.

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF 
THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 5N TO 
20N TO THE WEST OF 120W ACCORDING TO WINDSAT AND ASCAT DATA. 
THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE 
RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS THE N WATERS. 
SEA HEIGHTS ARE RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET IN THE AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...LIKELY DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. THIS 
WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE CONFINED TO AN AREA 
SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT TO PULSE UP AND DOWN 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 88W 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
GR