000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 06N86W TO 02N97W TO 02N108W 03N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...
AND FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WATERS N OF 25N 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT CURRENTLY IS OFF THE OREGON COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING
A ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ALSO WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 14 FEET AND PERIODS RANGING FROM
10 SECONDS TO 15 SECONDS. SHIP AND WINDSAT DATA DURING THE 
MIDNIGHT HOURS INDICATED NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS NEAR 28N132W. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N TO THE
WEST OF 120W ACCORDING TO WINDSAT DATA. THIS TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO
ITS EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. JASON ALTIMETER PASSES DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
11 FEET IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...LIKELY DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. THIS WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BE CONTAINED TO AN AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 125W.

E OF 110W...GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS 
PULSING TO 15 KT AS NOTED BY A 25/0300Z ASCAT PASS. THESE
WINDS BARELY WILL REACH 20 KT FOR BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. ASCAT AND TOGA-TAO BUOYS HAVE
SHOWN FAIRLY LIGHT WIND FLOW OF 10 KT OR LESS IN MUCH OF
THE REMAINING AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 100W...WITH NO 
DISCERNIBLE CONVERGENCE TO DEFINE AN ITCZ POSITION.
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS IN THIS
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 25/0430Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N...INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF NEAR 20N CLOSE TO CABO 
CORRIENTES. THIS FLOW IS POSITIONED BETWEEN OF THE 1026 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N132W AND BROAD SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE THAT IS CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS 
WESTWARD...AND THE LOW
PRESSURE IN MEXICO FILLS.

$$
MT