000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 03N110W 
TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WATERS N OF 25N OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE 
OREGON COAST...TO THE EAST OF A LARGE REX BLOCK N OF 30N ALONG 
155W. THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH SAT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING S OF 32N 
EARLY SAT...DELIVERING A ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO 
THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 130W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. NW SWELL 
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH LATE 
SAT...WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 14 FT AND PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 
SECONDS. SHIP AND WINDSAT DATA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATE 
NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA ON THE EASTERN EDGE 
OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N132W. FURTHER 
SOUTH...A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS NOTED IN 
WINDSAT DATA BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 25N W OF 120W...SOUTH OF THE 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N132W. THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
SLIGHTLY WEST WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO ITS EAST BY EARLY 
SAT. JASON ALTIMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS INDICATE SEAS 
OF 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...LIKELY DUE 
TO NE SWELL. THIS WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN AND BE 
CONTAINED TO AN AREA S OF 10N W OF 125W.

E OF 110W...GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS 
PULSING TO 15 KT AS NOTED BY A 03Z ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL 
BARELY REACH 20 KT FOR BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ASCAT AND TOGA-TAO BUOYS ARE 
SHOWING FAIRLY LIGHT WIND FLOW OF 10 KT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE 
REMAINING AREA E OF 100W...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CONVERGENCE TO 
DEFINE AN ITCZ POSITION. COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 5 FT 
OR LESS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 0430Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NW WINDS AROUND 20 
KT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 26N...INTO THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF NEAR 20N CLOSE TO CABO CORRIENTES. THIS FLOW 
IS POSITIONED BETWEEN OF THE 1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N132W AND 
LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 
TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WEST...AND THE LOW 
PRES OVER MEXICO FILLS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN