000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240822
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0630 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N110W 
TO 03N115W TO 05N126W TO 04N140W. THERE CURRENTLY IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 10N100W 
WILL MIGRATE NE TO THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY SAT MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES 
THE ANTICYCLONE AS EVIDENCED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
ADJACENT WATERS AS A RESULT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOSITURE HAS 
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST IN THE 
VICINITY OF 1010 MB LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE NEAR 05N78W...BUT 
DRY AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
THE AREA NEAR THE LOW WILL SEE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
BY FRI BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE TO THE NW AND A 
LOW ALOFT SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 17S91W WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR A GREAT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE REGION BY 
INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION. THIS LOW ALOFT IS REFLECTING THROUGH 
THE MID LEVELS TO THE SURFACE AND IS DISRUPTING THE ITCZ OVER 
EASTERN WATERS.

AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE W OF THE ANTICYLONE FROM NW MEXICO 
NEAR 32N115W TO 10N130W AND TO A WEAK LOW ALOFT NEAR 05N125W. 
THIS WEAK LOW ALOFT IS REFLECTING A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 07N124W AND 02N127W. THERE IS AN AREA 
OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE TROUGH...BUT THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING 
TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE JET 
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN AREA OF 
ISOLATED CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST S 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL 
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH NW MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE 
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGH PRES AT THE 
SURFACE BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGING AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO WILL ALLOW 20 
KT NW TO N WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
TODAY AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO WITH 
THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE 0500Z ASCAT 
PASS CONFIRMS THE ONSET OF THESE CONDITIONS. A NEW...POSITIVELY 
TILTED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL 
DIP INTO N CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY SAT MORNING.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUSLY SOUTHERN ITCZ AND THE 
RIDGING N OF IT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AS 
FAR S AS 05N IN WESTERN WATERS ACCORDING TO THE 0248Z WINDSAT 
PASS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY 
UNCHANGED UNTIL MIDDAY FRI WHEN THE NEW NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH 
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO 
THE N. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNTIL LATE FRI MORNING. SHIP PDGS 
CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS AT 07Z.

$$
SCHAUER