000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W 
TO 01N97W TO 03N110W TO 06N124W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.     

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N118W THEN 
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 25N132W. A 90-130 KT JET 
STREAM BRANCH IS SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CROSSES 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO INTO THE SW CONUS. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
NEAR 10N100W AND WILL MOVE SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED IN 
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER SE MEXICO AND N CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING S TO THE EQUATOR 
AT 106W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA E OF 
85W S OF 10N. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED 
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N122W 
WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 26N117W TO 21N121W. N TO 
NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE TROUGH. SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS OF 11 FT IN NW SWELL CAN BE FOUND W OF THE TROUGH. THE 
LOW PRES AND FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. A 
SFC TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 7N124W TO 3N127W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 
RUNS FROM 6N77W TO 2N79W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH.  

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING N OF IT IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS AS FAR S AS 07N. THIS AREA OF 
TRADES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGING 
TO THE N BUILDS EASTWARD AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW PRES 
SYSTEM OVER NE WATERS DISSIPATES. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 23N AND 25N...IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT JUST W OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO. 

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR 
N WATERS BY FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND A 
NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
GR