000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0700 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 
MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 03N78W TO 02N90W THEN RESUMES AT 04N107W 
TO 04N121W TO 03N128W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION 
CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ.    

...DISCUSSION...

THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK 
DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE 
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL UPPER JET. AN 
ANTICYLONE ALOFT S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 10N95W WILL 
MIGRATE N TO THE COAST BY THU. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE 
ANTICYCLONE AS EVIDENCED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 

AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE W OF THE ANTICYLONE FROM 32N122W TO 
10N132W WITH A WEAK LOW ALOFT JUST TO ITS SE NEAR 05N125W. THE 
WEAK LOW ALOFT IS REFLECTING A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE EMBEDDED IN 
THE ITCZ FROM 07N120W AND 04N123W. THERE IS AN AREA OF 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ON THE W SIDE OF TROUGH PRIMARILY N OF 
THE ITCZ...BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
STEMMING FROM 1015 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 29N122W AND EXTENDING 
TO 28N120W TO 23N127W TO 24N135W. THE 0518Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 
WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT 
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH 
ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS. HIGH PRES 
WILL QUICKLY BUILD AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE THE LOW DISSIPATES. THE 
STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND DEEPENING 
LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO WILL ALLOW NW TO N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 
20 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AS WELL AS 
OFF THE COAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO BY THU. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUSLY SOUTHERN ITCZ AND THE 
RIDGING N OF IT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS AS FAR S AS 
05N. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD WHEN THE 
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N BUILDS EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT AND 
LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NE WATERS DISSIPATES. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM.

GULF OF PANAMA...NLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE PASSING INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS 
AFTERNOON.  

$$
SCHAUER