000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 00N90W THEN RESUMES AT 00N100W TO 04N125W TO 03N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 130W.    

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 
32N124W TO 08N130W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORT A SFC LOW 
PRES AND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE N WATERS. AN AREA 
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE N-NE AHEAD 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BY A 40-60 KT SWLY JET ALOFT. THE RIDGE 
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 110W...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA TO 4N100W THEN SOUTH ALONG 100W TO 
BEYOND THE EQUATOR. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG 84W/85W S 
OF 11N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1013 MB LOW PRES HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST 
WATERS AND NOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N125W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N122W 24N130W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT 
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 26N140W. THE 1806 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW 
TO N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITHIN 
AROUND 180 NM W OF LOW CENTER. SHIP C6NZ3 SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS JUST WEST OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT QUALITY CONTROL OF THE 
SHIP HISTORY INDICATED THAT THIS SHIP IS ABOUT 10 KT TOO HIGH.  
MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 14 FT IN NW SWELL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 28N119W 
TO 23N122W WED MORNING. THE LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.

A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W TO 16N105W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING N OF IT IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS AS FAR S AS 05N. THE AREA OF 
TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RETREAT WESTWARD IN 24 HOURS. THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR N WATERS BY LATE 
FRI.

REGIONAL SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY NE WIND WAVES...NW SWELL AND 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW CONVERGENCE OF THE LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM.

GULF OF PANAMA...NLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE DRAINING INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS 
AFTERNOON.  

$$
GR