000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W 
TO 02N87W THEN RESUMES AT 03N112W TO 05N130W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 120W.  


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 
32N124W TO 08N130W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORT A SFC LOW 
PRES AND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE N WATERS. AN AREA 
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE N-NE AHEAD 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BY A 40-60 KT SWLY JET ALOFT. THE RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA E OF 110W...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM GUATEMALA TO 9N97W TO 3N100W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW PRES NEAR 
31.5N122W TO 26N130W TO 27N140W. THE 1806 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 
NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. MAXIMUM 
SEA HEIGHTS OF 13 FT IN NW SWELL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS 
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N117W TO 
22N120W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. 

A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W TO 20N108W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING N OF IT IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS AS FAR S AS 05N. THE AREA OF 
TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RETREAT WESTWARD IN 24 HOURS. THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR N WATERS BY LATE 
FRI.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL 
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 20 KT 
WINDS MOST PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE 
NIGHTTIME MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS 
UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. 

$$
GR