000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221619 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 22 2011

CORRECTED FOR EDITING PROBLEMS

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM 05N77W TO 02N83W TO 03N90W THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N113W TO 
03N126W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 117W TO 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 32N126W TO 17N138W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE 
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS CONSISTS OF THE TROUGH ENDING
UP ALONG 22N128W BEYOND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
TO 17N102W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO 10N114W BEYOND 08N140W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N126W TO 28N131W TO 30N139W.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT
STILL IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BE 1014 MB AND NEAR 28N119W AT 24 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE
BY 48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE 
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 115W AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUSLY 
SOUTHERN ITCZ AND THE RIDGING THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF IT IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 05N.
THE AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD GRADUALLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGING IS COMPROMISED 
BY THE FRONT FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 
8 TO 14 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WITH 20 KT WINDS MOST PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WHEN THE NIGHTTIME MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT
A MAXIMUM.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH IN ORDER
TO SUPPORT FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 

$$
MT