000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 00N83W THEN CONTINUES FROM 04N115W TO 03N140W. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH WITH MEAN AXIS 
ALONG 125W BOOKENDED BY RIDGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE LYING 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 94W/95W AND THE WESTERN RIDGE W OF 
THE AREA ALONG 145W. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED TO THE N-NE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BY A 20-40 
KT SOUTHERLY JET ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST 
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W...BUT CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF 
THE TROUGH IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION 
THERE.

FARTHER NW AND N...HIGH PRES DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. RIDGING 
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N140W TO 25N120W TO 20N110W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUSLY SOUTHERN ITCZ AND THE 
RIDGING N OF IT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS AS FAR S AS 
05N. THE AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT 
WESTWARD THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGING IS 
COMPROMISED BY AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED LOW AND COLD FRONT. 
CURRENTLY...THIS VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED LOW LOCATED OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N126W IS DROPPING SWD AT 25-30 KT. ITS 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE FAR N 
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N125W TO 28N127W TO 
30N138W JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 1014 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 28N121W TO 24N124W TO 26N140W BY EARLY WED MORNING 
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL 
USHER IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 
16 FT LATER TODAY. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL 
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 20 KT 
WINDS MOST PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE 
NIGHTTIME MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS 
UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. 

$$
SCHAUER/COBB