000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 04N77W TO 00N95W THEN RESUME FROM 00N120W TO 03N130W 
TO 03N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 87W TO 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH MEAN AXIS FROM 32N121W TO 
03N133W ADVECT ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR INTO N BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO RIDING ON 90 KT SW JET CORE.  TROUGH 
AND MOISTURE SUPPORT COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRES FEATURES OVER NEW 
MEXICO AND W TEXAS.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FORCED E BY ADVANCING  
LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS REMAINDER OF BASIN S OF 25N VERY DRY 
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 

STRONG SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN LONGWAVE TROUGH W SIDE FORCES 
CYCLONIC VORTEX...AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...S ACROSS 32N INTO  
E PAC WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS N OF 25N E OF 
135W EARLY TUE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 34N136W FORCED SE BY COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX EFFECTIVELY 
DAMPENING FRESH NE TRADES BY EARLY TUE. COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO 
E PAC WATERS TUE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 
TO 16 FT IN ITS WAKE. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT 
DIMINISH IN AREA COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA 
ARE SUPPORTED BY 1006 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE TUE.

$$
WALLY BARNES