000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 04N77W TO 00N95W THEN RESUME FROM 00N119W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 124W 
TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH MEAN AXIS FROM 32N121W TO 
05N127W ADVECT ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR INTO N BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO RIDING ON 100 KT SW JET CORE.  TROUGH 
AND MOISTURE SUPPORT COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRES FEATURES OVER FOUR 
CORNERS AREA.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FORCED E BY ADVANCING LONGWAVE 
TROUGH MAINTAINS REMAINDER OF BASIN S OF 25N VERY DRY DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW AT 
BASE OF TROUGH ENHANCES BLOOM OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ 
FROM 124W TO 130W. 

MODEL GUIDANCE BRING STRONG SHORT WAVE WHICH FORCES CYCLONIC 
VORTEX...AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...S ACROSS 32N INTO E PAC WITH 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N E OF 135W EARLY TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 34N137W DRIFT S BEHIND DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT OVER N TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EFFECTIVELY DAMPENING 
FRESH NE TRADES BY EARLY TUE.  VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED 
WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX MOVES S INTO E PAC WATERS TUE 
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT 
DIMINISH IN AREA COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA 
ARE SUPPORTED BY 1006 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE TUE.

$$
WALLY BARNES