000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2204 UTC SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 05N77W TO 01N88W TO 02N119W TO 05N129W TO 06N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 
127W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO 
BASIN MOSTLY N OF 20N W OF 120W AND SUPPORTS WEAK COLD FRONT 
FROM 30N113W TO 24N117W.  UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS AROUND 
VORTEX BRINGING REINFORCING ENERGY BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THAT QUICKLY SHIFT N OF 30N BY EARLY SUN. 

MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE FORCING DEEP 
LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX SE INTO BASIN BY END OF PERIOD WITH STRONG 
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N AND FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW 
WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 24N. 

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVER BASIN E OF 110W WITH VERY DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING 
EVEN ALONG ITCZ.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...  
BROAD HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA 1026 MB DIGS S 
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH STRING OF WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS 
ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AS 
HIGH AS 14 FT...WHICH THEN SPREAD SE INTO BASIN REACHING AS FAR 
S AS 20N.  PRESENT FRESH BREEZE IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24 HRS TO A MODERATE BREEZE AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY 
FURTHER INLAND.  

LARGE NW SWELL EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 14 FT BEHIND COLD FRONT 
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY MON.  NW SWELL TRAIN 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE OVER MUCH OF BASIN W OF 105W THROUGH 
PERIOD.  INCREASING NE TRADES BRING HIGHER SEAS FROM 05N TO 08N 
W OF 125W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAS FRESH WINDS SPILLING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN 
INTO E PAC WITH NIGHTTIME MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE AIR MASS REINFORCING 
ELY WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1007 MB OVER NW COLOMBIA TIGHTEN GRADIENT 
OVER GULF OF PANAMA TO PRODUCE FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY 
THROUGH MON. 

HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO SPILLING COLD AIR MASS THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN.  WIND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A 
MODERATE BREEZE AS HIGH PRES MOVES FURTHER E VEERING WINDS OVER 
SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES