000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 05N77W TO 00N89W TO 02N117W TO 07N133W TO 07N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 120W 
SUPPORTS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N116W TO 24N122W THEN 
STATIONARY TO 22N128W.  UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RACES ON 
DOWNSLOPE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH REINFORCING ENERGY AS IT 
APPROACHES STATIONARY BOUNDARY EARLY SUN.  FRESH TO STRONG NW 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISH BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVER BASIN E OF 110W WITH VERY DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING 
EVEN ALONG ITCZ.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...  
BROAD HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA 1028 MB DIGS S 
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH STRING OF WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS 
ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AS 
HIGH AS 14 FT...WHICH THEN SPREAD SE INTO BASIN REACHING AS FAR 
S AS 20N.  PRESENT FRESH BREEZE IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24 HRS TO A MODERATE BREEZE AS COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY 
FURTHER INLAND.  

LARGE NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 14 FT BEHIND THE NEW 
FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. THE 
NW SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE OVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS W OF 105W THROUGH PERIOD.  INCREASING NE TRADES 
BRING HIGHER SEAS FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 125W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAS FRESH WINDS SPILLING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN 
INTO E PAC WITH NIGHTTIME MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE AIR MASS REINFORCING 
ELY WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1008 MB OVER NW COLOMBIA TIGHTEN GRADIENT 
OVER GULF OF PANAMA TO PRODUCE FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY 
THROUGH MON. 

HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO SPILLING COLD AIR MASS THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN.  THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE 
BREEZE AS HIGH PRES MOVES FURTHER E VEERING WINDS OVER SW GULF 
OF MEXICO LATE SUN.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES