000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 00N107W TO 06N132W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N126W TO 20N122W 
TO 05N140W SUPPORTS WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 30N121W TO 22N134W.  
TROUGH WEAKENS SAT AS SHORT WAVE PIVOT ITS AXIS NEAR 27N AND 
HEADS NE WITH JET CORE DIMINISHING FROM 145 KT TO LESS THAN 120 
KT.  GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BRING HEALTHY SECOND SHORT WAVE EARLY 
SUN BUT RESTRICT ITS EFFECTS ON THE SURFACE WINDS N OF 28N.  

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY OVER MOST OF BASIN WITH MOISTURE IN
AREA FROM N OF 16N W OF 132 AND A SWATH ALONG PRESENT COLD 
FRONT.  ALSO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SMALL REGION ALONG 
ITCZ AXIS COVER FROM W OF 127W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
PREVIOUS HIGH PRES RIDGE 1019 MB HAS DISSIPATED UNDER COLD FRONT 
PUSH INLAND AND REPLACED BY LARGER...STRONGER...BUT FARTHER N 
HIGH PRES CENTER.  DRY STABLE AIR THROUGHOUT UPPER LEVELS ACROSS 
BASIN EXCEPT AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  

WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 30N121W TO 22N134W MOVES INLAND.  SURFACE 
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND KEEP FRESH BREEZE N OF 28N AND SPREADING  
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN E OF 110W.  
 
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINTAINS FRESH NE WINDS SPILLING INTO E PAC 
FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH PERIOD. 

LOW PRES 1007 MB OVER N COLOMBIA TIGHTENS GRADIENT OVER GULF 
OF PANAMA WITH STRONG N BREEZE STARTING LATE TONIGHT THEN 
DIMINISHING BY SUN AS LOW PRES WEAKENS
 
$$
WALLY BARNES