000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 07N81W TO 02N92W.  AXIS CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 03N118W 
TO 07N132W TO 06N140W.NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY WITH NO GALES 
CURRENTLY PRESENT AND NONE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS EVENING AND IS 
LOCATED ALONG 30N132W TO 29N140W. SURFACE WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 
TO 25 KT FOR BOTH THE S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE 
NW TO N WINDS BEHIND IT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  IT IS NOTED 
THAT THE GFS HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS THAN THE ECMWF AND 
UKMET...AND A BLEND OF THE THREE IS UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST.  
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE INDUCING SOME FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THESE WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT 
AS SE WINDS AND VEER TO SW ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  
THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WITH THIS CURRENT COOL AIR OUTBREAK IS 
REINFORCING THE PRE-EXISTING NW SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  
PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE REACHING 14 TO 16 FT N OF 25N 
W OF 120W.  THESE WILL DIMINISH SOME BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT 
STILL REMAIN OVER 12 FT FOR MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N.  A SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS EXIST NEAR 10N W OF 135W.  AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODEST...THESE WILL CONTINUE WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 24N125W TO 08N140W.  RIDING ALONG THE 
WESTERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH IS A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH 
THAT IS JUST ENTERING OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AT 30N131W TO 
27N133W.  THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT.  EAST OF 110W SOUTH OF 20N...ZONAL 
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT.

GAP WINDS...
THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WEST OF NICARAGUA IS LIKELY 
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS...THOUGH OBSERVATIONS 
THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN SPARSE.  THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE DUE 
TO TRADEWIND FORCING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS IN LATE NIGHT AND MORNING 
HOURS AND LOWER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING.

A GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
WITH FORCING DUE TO A NE WIND SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  THIS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD 
STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE CONDITIONS.

$$
LANDSEA