000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 04N118W TO 07N133W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NE PACIFIC TODAY WITH NO GALES 
CURRENTLY PRESENT AND NONE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N113W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N119W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR HIGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE ENTERING 
OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY IN 
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT AND THE NW TO N WINDS BEHIND IT.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE 
INDUCING SOME FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.  THESE WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SE WINDS AND 
VEER TO SW ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  THE ASSOCIATED 
NW SWELL WITH THIS NEXT COOL AIRMASS IS REINFORCING THE EXISTING 
NW SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
ARE REACHING 14 TO 16 FT N OF 25N W OF 120W.  THESE WILL 
DIMINISH SOME BY SATURDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN OVER 12 FT FOR MOST 
OF THE AREA N OF 20N.  A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS EXIST 
NEAR 10N W OF 135W.  AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN 
MODEST...THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 30N126W TO 18N130W TO 08N140W.  RIDING 
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH IS A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE 
TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  THIS 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD 
FRONT SOON TO ENTER OUR AREA.  EAST OF 110W...ZONAL WESTERLY 
FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT.

GAP WINDS...
THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WEST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING 20 TO 
25 KT NE WINDS...AS SEEN IN THE 1454Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS.  
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE DUE TO TRADEWIND FORCING FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND 
SEAS IN LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND LOWER WINDS AND SEAS IN 
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
THIS MAY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH GALE 
FORCE CONDITIONS.

$$
LANDSEA