000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W 
TO 08N89W THEN RESUMES NEAR 07N111W TO 04N127W TO 06N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A BROAD DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER 
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 49N128W TO 
30N130W TO 25N140W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N124W TO 
26N136W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 16/0608 UTC 
CAPTURED 20 KT NW WINDS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 
GREATER THAN 12 FT W OF 130W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY AND WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER FRONT FORECAST 
TO CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 25N BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY. SEAS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 
15 FT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 111W INFLUENCED BY SEAS ABOVE 8 
FT AS THE NW SWELL TRAIN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA 
MONDAY GENERATING NE TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
EXISTING SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 20 KT 
NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
EARLY THURSDAY.

E OF 100W...STABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS 
PREVAIL EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 108W. GAP WIND 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE TO S 
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN