000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
06N115W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A BROAD DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
NE PACIFIC ALONG 135W TO 26N. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 10N110W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NRN MEXICO. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 30N130W 
TO 27N140W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THIS 
MORNING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG 
WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INCREASE SURFACE WINDS N OF 28N TODAY THEN 
DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BY EARLY THU AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS 
OUT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RAISING SEA HEIGHTS TO 16-17 FT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N EARLY THU. MEANWHILE A WEAKENING 
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DISPLACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN 
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE 
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS 
MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING WINDS TO 
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA W COAST THEN DIMINISH THU. THIS 
TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN 
COVERAGE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH EARLY THU. 

E OF 100W...STABLE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL S 
AND SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 110W. GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT. FRESH 
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...NE TRADE 
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
PANAMA...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF PULSES OF 20 KT N FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT AS 
TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SHIFT MORE E TO NE.

$$
MUNDELL