000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160353 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED FEB 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NEAR 05S92W CROSSING THE EQUATOR FROM 00N114W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W...A BROAD DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC ALONG 135W TO 26N135W. THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH FORMERLY OCCUPYING THIS REGION PERSISTED FROM 28N122W TO 12N134W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WAS E OF THESE TWO FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 10N110W EXTENDING NW THEN N-NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NRN MEXICO. AN OLD AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N126W TO 25N140W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR NW PORTIONS AND WILL MOVE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...AND SHIFT E-SE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E. ASCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC. WHILE WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE NOT YET PENETRATED S OF 30N...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AS FAR S AS 28N BY EARLY WED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY N OF 28N BY EARLY THU AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RAISING SEA HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 16 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY THU. MEANWHILE A WEAKENING 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DISPLACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N108W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH WED MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL CAUSE NLY WINDS TO 20 KT TO SHIFT S ALONG S PORTIONS OF THE BAJA W COAST AND EVENTUALLY TO DIMINISH THU EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT FRESH TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG THE ITCZ...CURRENTLY FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 130W...TO CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH EARLY THU. E OF 100W...STABLE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAIL S AND SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. RESIDUAL GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASED TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS DIMINISHED TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MODIFIED AND SHIFTED E. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...NE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA...DELIVERING A BRIEF PULSES OF 20 KT N FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH BY WED AFTERNOON AS TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SHIFT MORE E TO NE. $$ STRIPLING