000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 02S96W TO 05N135W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A BROAD DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
NE PACIFIC ALONG 135W TO 27N133W. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...AND MERGE 
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E. ASCAT 
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE 
N CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC. WHILE WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE NOT 
YET PENETRATED S OF 30N...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE 
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE STRONGER SURFACE 
WINDS AS FAR S AS 28N BY EARLY WED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT 
LEAST TEMPORARILY N OF 28N BY EARLY THU AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
LIFTS OUT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RAISING SEA HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH 
AS 16 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY THU. 
MEANWHILE A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DISPLACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 26N123W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA 
COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY WED AS A 
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
TO DIMINISH...AS WELL AS AN AREA FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW 
FROM 06N TO 14N W OF 123W TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE FROM EAST TO 
WEST THROUGH EARLY THU. 

E OF 110W...RESIDUAL GAP WIND FLOW OF UP TO 25 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS INCREASED TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON BUT 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES AND 
SHIFTS E. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING 
HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...NE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA...DELIVERING A BRIEF 
PULSES OF 20 KT N FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH BY WED AFTERNOON AS TRADES 
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SHIFT MORE E TO NE.

$$
STRIPLING