000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 01S95W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A BROAD DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
NW PACIFIC ALONG 132W TO 15N132W. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...AND MERGE 
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E. ASCAT 
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE 
N CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC. WHILE WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE NOT 
YET PENETRATED S OF 30N...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE 
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE STRONGER SURFACE 
WINDS AS FAR S AS 28N BY EARLY WED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT 
LEAST TEMPORARILY N OF 28N BY EARLY THU AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
LIFTS OUT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 15 FT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY THU. MEANWHILE 
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DISPLACED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 26N123W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS HIGH PRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS 
RESULTING IN FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE 
SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TO 
DIMINISH...AS WELL AS AN AREA FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW 
FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 120W TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE FROM EAST TO 
WEST THROUGH EARLY THU. 

E OF 110W...RESIDUAL GAP WIND FLOW OF UP TO 25 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AS COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
MODIFIES AND SHIFTS E. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PRIMARILY DURING THE 
MORNING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...NE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA...DELIVERING 
20 KT N FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA BY EARLY WED. THIS WILL BE 
SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH BY EARLY THU AS TRADES DIMINISH OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN