000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150830
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N81W 
TO 04N100W TO 03N120W TO 04N130W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 132W DOMINATES MUCH OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH 
LIES A PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
THAT HAS WEAKENED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN DISLODGED TO THE 
NE AND INTO THE WRN U.S. BY A SERIES OF SPOKES IN THE NORTHERN 
STREAM TROUGH. THESE SPOKES HAVE BROUGHT A FEW COLD FRONTS TO 
THE NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAKENING 
STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 
NW PORTION. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS TO THE SE OF THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH. GOES SATELLITE WINDS AT 250-350 MB SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 03N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N-NW INTO 
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED UNDER THE 
ANTICYLONE BETWEEN 100W-110W AND HAS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
JET BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE ALOFT COINCIDES 
WITH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
05N-10N BETWEEN 102W-138W AS WELL AS DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE OF 
THE NE TRADE WINDS WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S AT THE 
SURFACE. THIS AREA IS MARKED BY MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIMITING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 
131W...PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SWATH OF LOW TO MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONE. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...WITH JUST THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING SLIGHTLY 
FARTHER E.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0302Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS ON 
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE THE 0030Z 
WINDSAT PASS NOW SHOWS WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT DOWNWIND OF 
TEHUANTEPEC W OF 96W. N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL 
FOR LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING PULSES TO 30 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH 
DURING THE DAY WED AND GO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNSET. A 
LARGE AREA OF SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE LIES SW OF THE GULF 
OF TEHAUNTEPEC WHERE THE NE SWELL FROM THE GAP WINDS IS MERGING 
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A 0145Z JASON1 PASS SHOWS SEAS 
IN THE 9 TO 10 FT RANGE NEARLY 900 NM DOWNWIND OF THE GULF NEAR 
07N106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 8 FT BY EARLY WED AND 
GO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THIS 
SPEED INTO EARLY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...1026 MB 
HIGH PRES NEAR 29N121W WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD TROUGH ALOFT 
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...ALLOWING DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS OVER 
NE WATERS TO ENCROACH UPON THE HIGH. THERE CURRENTLY IS A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE HIGH THAT IS FORCING THE HIGH 
CENTER SE AND A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE WATERS BY THE END 
OF THE PERIOD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND TROUGHING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS IS PRODUCING NWLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 24N AND 26N. THE 0032Z WINDSAT PASS 
CONFIRMS THE 20 KT WINDS HERE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGHING OVER LAND WEAKENS. OFF THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...SHIPS PDAN AND C6QM8 HAVE 
REPORTED NW WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 
THU MORNING WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY STRONG 
THERE.

$$
SCHAUER