000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150350 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE FEB 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 01S80W TO 02S90W TO 01N100W TO 01S107W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED OFF OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W...OCCURRING ALONG THE N FLANKS OF A SHEAR LINE. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NE PACIFIC THIS EVENING... EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 25N140W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LIFTED OUT TO THE NE AND INTO THE WRN U.S. LEAVING A NARROW TROUGH FROM 28N125W TO 09N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH... CENTERED NEAR 15N107W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW THEN N AND CRESTING BEYOND 30N107W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE OCCURRING N OF 14N AND ARCHING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NRN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NARROW TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF THESE TWO FEATURES AND W OF 107W THEN BECOME SW E OF 107W AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS CONTINUES. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A NARROW WEAKNESS OR SEAM IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION OF LAND STATION MMIT RECENTLY DROPPING TO 20 KT...AND THE PLUME OF FRESH WINDS DIMINISHING IN SIZE. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING PULSES TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE NLY FLOW TO 20 KT ENDS LATE WED AFTERNOON. MAX SEAS ARE 9 TO 10 AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 8 FT ON WED. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS HAS SPREAD S TO ALONG 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W...AND ARE MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE AND OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALONG ABOUT 125W OVERNIGHT...AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST THERE TO PRODUCE NWLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. NWLY WINDS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS S OF 28N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT AND GREATER. $$ STRIPLING