000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 
03N78W TO 02N90W TO 01N100W TO 04N120W TO 06N133W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED OFF OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 
09N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF 120W WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N120W TO 11N135W. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH...CENTERED AT 
14N108W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW THEN N AND CRESTING 
BEYOND 30N107W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE OCCURRING N OF 
15N AND ARCHING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THEN ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NRN MEXICO. 
OTHERWISE...DRY AND AND SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE 
RELATIVELY NARROW TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES GENERALLY 
PREVAIL S OF THESE TWO FEATURES AND W OF 107W THEN BECOME SW E 
OF 107W AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND WITHIN 
300 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...WHERE LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS CONTINUES. THIS CONVECTION 
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OR 
SEAM.  

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE GULF 
WITH THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION OF LAND STATION MMIT RECENTLY 
DROPPING TO 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
WITH A FEW PULSES TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED 
MORNING. MAX SEAS ARE 11 TO 12 FT AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 
ABOUT 8 FT ON WED. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS HAS 
SPREAD S TO ALONG 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W...AND ARE MERGING 
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE AND WELL OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST THERE TO PRODUCE NWLY WINDS NEAR 20 
KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. NWLY WINDS INSIDE 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 
KT ACROSS PORTIONS S OF 28N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 6 FT AND GREATER.

$$
STRIPLING